The IMF is fully hedged
(1) IMF Executive Board Concludes 2009 Article IV Consultation with Japan
Public Information Notice (PIN) No. 09/82
July 15, 2009
They expected a sustained recovery to take hold next year, in line with a pick up in global growth, with inflation in mildly negative territory during the slowdown. However, Directors emphasized that the outlook is exceptionally uncertain. Notwithstanding recent signs of stabilization, risks are tilted to the downside due to a deteriorating labor market, still-tight financial conditions, and lingering uncertainties about global growth.
(2) Statement at the Conclusion of the 2009 Article IV Consultation Mission to Korea
Press Release No.09/255
July 7, 2009
The outlook is, however, subject to substantial uncertainty, although overall risks are now tilted slightly to the upside. The downside risks stem from a possibly more pronounced feedback loop between the real economy and the financial sector or an unexpected spike in oil prices. These are more than offset by the upside to growth from a stronger than projected impact of the policy stimulus and a faster-than-anticipated recovery in global growth.

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